The Geopolitics of Copper: Zambia, Chile and the World
Copper is the metal of the electrified economy. Two countries — Chile and Zambia, together with the DRC's Katanga — hold the dominant share of the world's reserves and have shaped, and been shaped by, the global copper market.
The geology
Roughly half of identified copper reserves sit in the Andes from Peru to Chile. A further quarter sits in the Central African Copperbelt across Zambia and Katanga (DRC). The geography is exceptionally concentrated.
The Chilean state
Chile produces around 28 % of world copper. Codelco, the state copper corporation, has been the world's largest copper producer since nationalisation in 1971 under Salvador Allende. The 'copper law' that allocates 10 % of copper revenue to the Chilean military is a politically central feature.
The 1973 coup and copper
Allende's nationalisation of copper was central to the United States' decision to back the September 1973 coup that brought Pinochet to power. CIA-declassified documents are explicit on the connection. The copper sector was, however, kept in state hands by Pinochet.
The Chuquicamata and El Teniente strikes
Chilean copper labour history is a foundational thread of South American politics — from the 1907 Santa María de Iquique massacre to the 1973 Chuquicamata strikes.
Zambian Independence
The Zambian Copperbelt powered British colonial Northern Rhodesia from 1928. Kenneth Kaunda's UNIP led Zambia to independence in 1964 with copper as the principal economic asset; nationalisation followed in 1973.
The 1990s collapse
Falling copper prices in the 1990s, structural adjustment programmes, and IMF demands led Zambia to privatise its copper mines in 1997–2000. Chinese, Indian and Glencore-Xstrata investors entered.
China's role
China consumes around half of world copper output. Chinese state companies (CNMC, Zijin, MMG) have invested heavily in Zambian and Congolese copper. The political relationship is fraught — Zambian elections in 2011 and 2021 featured anti-Chinese rhetoric.
The DRC and Katanga
The Democratic Republic of Congo's Katanga province holds enormous copper and cobalt reserves. The collapse of central authority, the role of artisanal mining, and the cobalt boom for electric-vehicle batteries make this one of the most fraught extraction zones in the world.
The energy transition
Decarbonisation requires perhaps 4× current copper output by 2050. Where this copper comes from — and at what political and ecological cost — is one of the central questions of the next decades.
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